Housing markets don’t collapse simply because buyers hesitate. They collapse when sellers are forced to sell in large numbers. That requires three things happening together: a wave of forced selling, inventory overwhelming demand, and broad, synchronized price declines. Ohio doesn’t have that combination right now. Instead, it has something messier — a split market.

Homeowners locked into 2–4% mortgage rates are staying put. New construction has not kept pace. And with only a trickle of listings entering the market each month, buyers often face a shrinking pool of options rather than an expanding one.

Here’s the kicker: if nothing changes, the County Auditors Association president warned that property taxes could jump another 25–30% by the next sexennial reappraisal. In Licking County, we’ve got a triennial next year—another hit even before that “big kahuna” sexennial. In plain English: Ohio effectively audits property values every three years, and the meter keeps ticking up.

Every fall we see more price cuts—that’s normal. What’s different this year is the backdrop: inventory is higher than last year but still below long-term norms. That combination creates a sideways market: more list-price trimming without broad sale-price capitulation. Expect bigger discounts on homes with obvious drawbacks (busy roads, odd layouts, deferred maintenance) and firmer pricing on clean, well-located listings.