Have Ohio Home Prices FINALLY Stopped Rising?
If you’ve been watching Ohio listings lately, you’ve seen a new pattern: price cuts—everywhere. In Columbus, about one in three active listings has taken at least one cut. Dayton and Cincinnati sit near the low-30s, Akron around the high-20s, and Cleveland roughly the mid-20s. Toledo’s lower but still notable. That’s a real shift in seller behavior.
But here’s the twist: closed-sale prices haven’t crashed. In the Columbus metro, the median sale price is still up year over year (off the early-summer peak, but not falling off a cliff). Translation: list prices are bending; sold prices are sticky—for now.
Why all the price cuts if prices aren’t falling?
Two forces dominate:
Inventory’s up vs. last year. More homes for sale = more competition = less room to “test high” on price.
We’re still far from “normal” supply. Ohio hasn’t rebuilt to pre-2019 inventory. That scarcity props up final sale prices, even as asking prices get negotiated down.
There’s also mix: more overpriced listings, a larger share of higher-end homes, and a chunk of properties that need work. Move-in-ready and affordable still get snapped up; projects and the priciest tiers sit longer.
Quick County & Metro Check-ins
Franklin County (Columbus area): Actives up, pendings positive, closings a touch softer, prices still higher year over year. Demand isn’t dead; buyers are choosy.
Columbus Metro: Roughly a third of listings show a price cut, yet the median sale price is still up year over year.
Perry County (incl. Buckeye Lake): Inventory higher; median basically flat in 2025—luxury around the lake skews the mix.
Columbiana County: Actives up, pendings up, median up double-digits year over year. More supply is restoring price discovery.
Newark (Licking County): Inventory near pre-pandemic levels; median in the mid-$200Ks.
Union County (Plain City area): Inventory near “normal”; median down mid-single digits—new construction may be nudging prices sideways.
Seasonality vs. a real shift
Every fall we see more price cuts—that’s normal. What’s different this year is the backdrop: inventory is higher than last year but still below long-term norms. That combination creates a sideways market: more list-price trimming without broad sale-price capitulation. Expect bigger discounts on homes with obvious drawbacks (busy roads, odd layouts, deferred maintenance) and firmer pricing on clean, well-located listings.
New-construction wrinkle
Builders hate headline price cuts, so they often compete with rate buydowns, closing-cost credits, and upgrades rather than large list-price reductions. If you’re comparing a new build with a nearby resale:
Convert incentives into real dollars and net them against price.
Check HOA/maintenance and property tax differences (TIFs/abatements can shift your monthly).
Run the all-in payment (PITI + HOA) instead of focusing on price alone.
Where homes still move quickly (and where they sit)
Speed today is more about fit and condition than raw demand:
Fast movers: 3–4 bed / 2+ bath, updated kitchens/baths, functional yards, quiet streets, strong school clusters, turnkey under local median.
Slow movers: Dated interiors, unusual floorplans, major system risk (roof/HVAC/electrical), busy roads, or priced 10–15% above recent comps without a clear value case.
How to spot leverage in 90 seconds
Pull up a listing and run this quick scan:
Cut Count: 0 cuts = seller confidence; 2+ cuts = test price is failing.
DOM vs. Area Median: If DOM > area median by 50%+, leverage is improving.
LP:SP History Nearby: If neighboring closings show 98–100% LP:SP but this one languishes, the price is the problem.
Concessions Clues: Remarks like “rate buydown available,” “$X toward closing costs,” or “as-is” = negotiation signals.
Property Taxes: Check auditor for current bill and any reassessment schedule. Rising taxes can kill affordability even when rates drop.
Condition Delta: Compare photos to recent “sold” interiors. If you see obvious upgrade gaps, quantify them (paint/flooring/roof/HVAC).
Don’t ignore the tax bite
Property taxes can sneak-attack your budget. Ohio reassesses every three years, and some counties have seen big jumps in recent cycles. Before you offer:
Verify current bill, effective rate, and homestead/abatement status.
Ask your lender for a payment breakdown using today’s tax estimate, not last year’s.
For sellers: include recent utility/tax figures in your listing packet to avoid surprises later in escrow.
Investor corner (quick take)
With more price cuts and longer DOM at the margins, some make-ready deals are re-appearing—especially small multis and single-family rentals needing cosmetic work. Keep it simple:
Underwrite at market rent today, not wishful thinking.
Use a conservative expense ratio (or line-item if you’re experienced).
Stress-test at +1% interest rate and +10–15% taxes to avoid “paper cash flow” that evaporates.
What would actually push prices down?
Sustained inventory surge back toward pre-2019 levels (new listings rising faster than pendings for months).
Demand shock (job losses, tighter credit, or a rate spike).
Seller capitulation (distressed or must-move listings hitting at scale).
What would push them up again?
Rate relief that re-activates sidelined buyers.
Stagnant new listings (lock-in effect persists) keeping supply thin.
Builder discipline limiting spec inventory and leaning on incentives instead of cutting base prices.
The next 60–90 days (how I’m reading it)
More price cuts as stale summer listings chase the market.
Sideways to slightly softer sale prices in “B/C” locations or heavier-lift properties.
Stickier pricing in “A” locations and turnkey homes under the local median.
Watch: DOM creep, share of price cuts, LP:SP ratio, and months of supply—that quartet will tell you where we’re headed into winter.
So…have prices finally stopped rising?
Not broadly. We’re seeing asking prices bend (more cuts), but sale prices are mostly slowing, not sliding. For a durable downtrend, Ohio would need a sustained supply surge back toward historical norms—or a demand shock. Ironically, falling mortgage rates could re-ignite demand and give sellers fresh leverage.
Action Steps
Buyers
Hunt the pockets with multiple cuts and longer days on market; that’s where leverage lives.
Budget with taxes in mind—verify current bills and roll-forward risk at the auditor’s site.
If you love a home but hate the payment, negotiate concessions (rate buydown, credits) rather than chasing a massive headline cut.
Sellers
Price to today, not to 2021. Testing the market high just leads to weeks of sitting and serial cuts.
Condition matters—fix what scares buyers (roof/HVAC/electrical) and neutralize easy objections (paint/flooring/landscaping).
Be incentive-savvy: consider closing credits or rate buydowns to widen the buyer pool without torching your comp.
