Ohio’s Housing Market Is Under Strain — But It’s Not Crashing
If you follow national housing headlines, you’d assume Ohio is on the verge of a downturn. Inventory is rising in parts of the country. Pending sales are soft. Affordability is stretched. The crash narrative is everywhere. But when you break down what’s actually happening across Ohio — zip code by zip code — the picture is far more fragmented. Some markets are hitting record-high prices. Others are down sharply from their peaks. And beneath it all, financial stress is building in ways that don’t immediately show up in home values.
Housing markets don’t collapse simply because buyers hesitate. They collapse when sellers are forced to sell in large numbers. That requires three things happening together: a wave of forced selling, inventory overwhelming demand, and broad, synchronized price declines. Ohio doesn’t have that combination right now. Instead, it has something messier — a split market.
Take Dublin, zip code 43017. Home prices there are up roughly 15% since 2022, with a current median around $612,000 — an all-time high. Inventory helps explain why. There are 64 homes for sale today. Before the pandemic, there were 87, and in 2016 there were 114. Supply is still dramatically lower than historical norms. With fewer listings, sellers face less competition, and prices remain elevated. A similar pattern shows up in Medina (44256), where prices are up about 14% since 2022, sitting near a record $375,000. Inventory is just 62 homes today, compared to 167 in 2019. That kind of supply contraction naturally supports pricing. In Xenia (45385), prices are up roughly 16% since 2022, reaching a record near $245,000, while inventory sits at 59 homes versus 109 in 2018. Even in Toledo’s 43612 zip code, prices are up approximately 23% since 2022, with 64 homes on the market compared to 98 in 2018. Across these areas, the pattern is consistent: fewer homes for sale than in prior years, and prices holding or rising.
Now compare that to Columbus zip code 43205 near downtown. Prices are down about 5% since 2022. The market peaked around $285,000 in 2023 and has since slipped closer to $270,000. Inventory today is 63 homes, compared to 77 before the pandemic. Even a modest increase in supply has softened prices. In Wooster (44691), the correction is more dramatic. Prices are down nearly 21% from peak levels, falling from roughly $325,000 to about $259,000. Inventory is around 68 homes, higher than some recent years, and that increase has pressured values. In central Dayton (45402), prices are down about 5%, from a peak near $74,000 to around $68,000 today. Inventory has risen from 24 homes pre-pandemic to about 46 now — nearly double. In Toledo’s 43608 zip code, just one area south of stronger-performing neighborhoods, prices are essentially flat, down about 0.3% since 2022, while inventory has jumped from 28 homes in 2019 to roughly 64 today. Same metro areas, different supply dynamics, different price outcomes.
When you zoom out statewide, many zip codes are still up compared to 2022 while others are down, but they are not all moving in the same direction at the same time. Housing crashes require synchronization. Ohio has fragmentation. Without a unified surge in inventory across the state, price declines remain localized rather than systemic.
While price declines are limited to certain areas, financial pressure is beginning to surface elsewhere. Foreclosures remain relatively modest compared to 2008: 192 in Franklin County, 187 in Hamilton County, 189 in Montgomery County, and 94 in Summit County. That’s not crisis-level distress. But property tax delinquencies tell a more uncomfortable story. In Akron, there are approximately 23,774 tax delinquencies. In Franklin County, around 1,106. And in Cuyahoga County, roughly 109,000 property tax delinquencies. That number is significant. Property taxes don’t adjust downward because mortgage rates rise or incomes stagnate. They simply rise with assessed values and levies. That pressure often hits fixed-income homeowners, first-time buyers, landlords facing higher carrying costs, and households with job instability. It’s strain that builds slowly — not the kind that triggers instant collapse, but the kind that erodes financial flexibility over time.
Despite that stress, Ohio doesn’t resemble the pre-crash setup of the mid-2000s. Most homeowners today have substantial equity, locked-in low fixed-rate mortgages, and are not facing widespread adjustable-rate resets. As long as most owners aren’t forced to sell, inventory remains constrained. And as long as inventory remains constrained, broad price declines are unlikely. This doesn’t mean the market is healthy or comfortable. Affordability remains stretched. Buyers are cautious. Tax burdens are rising in many counties. Certain zip codes are clearly correcting. But a statewide collapse requires a wave of forced selling that simply isn’t here.
Ohio’s housing market isn’t booming uniformly, and it isn’t crashing either. It’s split. Some suburbs are at record highs because inventory remains far below historical norms. Some urban and smaller markets are correcting because listings have risen relative to recent years. Beneath it all, property tax delinquencies and payment strain signal underlying pressure. The difference between stress and collapse comes down to forced selling. Until that shows up at scale across multiple regions at once, Ohio is more likely to remain fragmented than to fall apart.
