The Housing Market Is Splitting in Two. Denver County and Onondaga County, NY Are the Proof.

Something is very wrong in the housing market right now. But how it's wrong depends entirely on where you live — and on one key number.

Let's start with prices. Nationally, home prices are barely up year over year — less than 1% according to Zillow. That single fact debunks most of what you're seeing in the headlines. The story that home prices are declining across the nation is completely false.

In fact, 99 of the top 300 markets have falling prices right now. But here's what nobody is talking about: 300 minus 99 is 201. And 201 markets have rising prices right now. Same country. Same mortgage rates. *(Source: ResiClub Analytics / Zillow, Feb 2026)*

Most real estate YouTube channels and news outlets aren't telling you that. They know if they show you a headline about how bad the housing market is — if they tell you the people who bought are going to suffer and because you didn't buy, you won't — you're going to click.

More on that later.

But pricing is only part of the story. Here's the deal: the stat the headlines consistently leave out is inventory. Nationally, we are still 13.6% below pre-pandemic 2019 inventory levels. There are 964,000 active listings right now nationally. In March 2019 there were over 1.1 million. We haven't gotten back there yet. And new listings in March 2026 are still 8.1% below March 2019. *(Source: ResiClub / Lance Lambert Inventory Tracker, March 2026)*

When inventory is low, sellers have no pressure to cut their price. And most of them aren't cutting — because most sellers don't need to sell.

Nearly 40% of all homeowners have no mortgage at all. *(Source: U.S. Census Bureau)* They aren't stressed. They aren't forced. They can wait forever.

But here's the kicker: right now only around 2% of all mortgages are underwater — meaning people owe more than their home is worth. Compare that to 23% during the 2008 financial crisis.

During 2008 through 2012, millions of homeowners were forced to sell. That flood of forced selling drove prices down over 20% nationally. That is not happening today. Sellers are not forced to sell. They can pull their listing, relist later, or stay put. And that simple overlooked fact drives the doom crowd absolutely crazy — because they need the forced selling to happen for their crash predictions to come true.

But it's not happening. Because the supply flood never came.

Inventory is the key variable in the housing market. It always has been. Supply and demand — nothing more complicated than that. And right now nationally, the supply picture is still tight enough in most markets to keep prices stable or rising.

But not everywhere. And that brings us to the real story.

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Two Housing Markets. Two Counties. Two Completely Different Realities.

Prices aren't rising everywhere. Prices aren't declining everywhere. And in many markets there are a lot more homes for sale than we've seen in years. While in others inventory keeps falling.

Generally speaking, the decline in inventory is centered around the Midwest and Northeast — though that's not all-encompassing. There are pockets in those regions where prices are dropping and inventory has risen substantially. Meanwhile the Sun Belt states have seen a dramatic rise in inventory. The map below from ResiClub Analytics shows exactly where each market stands.

To demonstrate exactly what's happening with inventory and prices, I'm going to break down two specific markets that tell the complete story. And I'm going county-level — not metro-level.

First: Denver County, Colorado. Then: Onondaga County, New York — home of Syracuse. These two counties sit on opposite ends of the same national housing market. Same country. Same rates. Same economy. Completely opposite outcomes.

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Denver County, CO: Prices Plunging, Inventory Soaring

Denver home prices recently peaked at $602,117 in June 2022. They've since fallen all the way to $537,832 — off nearly 11% from that peak and now falling 4.3% year over year. *(Source: ResiClub / Zillow ZHVI, Feb 2026)*

Here's the thing that tells the real story. In April 2022, the average home in Denver County sold in 7 days. Right now it's taking 79 days. That's the fastest to slowest reversal in the entire dataset going back to 2016.

Here's the deal: it all comes down to inventory.

In January 2022 there were only 397 active homes for sale in Denver County. By June 2025 that number had climbed to 3,683. That's nearly a 10x increase in just 3.5 years. Right now there are 2,706 active listings — still 60.5% above 2019 pre-pandemic levels. *(Source: Lance Lambert / ResiClub Inventory Tracker, March 2026)*

And it gets worse if you're a seller. Nearly 18% of all listings in Colorado have had a price reduction right now. Back in 2019 it was only 13%. Pending sales — the number measuring actual demand — are down 14.7% versus 2019. *(Source: Zillow, March 2026)* Fewer buyers closing deals. Homes sitting longer. More homes to choose from. Prices come down. Simple supply and demand.

But here's what most people miss entirely: even with that 11% drop from peak, Denver home prices are still up 201% since the year 2000. *(Source: ResiClub / Zillow ZHVI)* This isn't a crash. It's a correction from a massively elevated base after one of the longest boom cycles in the city's history.

So Why Did Denver's Market Fall Apart?

The housing market data tells you the what. But to understand the why, you have to look at the broader economic picture.

Colorado unemployment was 2.7% in 2019. By 2024 it had risen to 4.3% — matching the national average for the first time in years. *(Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)* During COVID, pandemic boomtowns like Denver experienced rapid job growth, low unemployment, and massive migration. People flooded in and gobbled up homes faster than builders could build them. The result was a dramatic collapse in inventory — and prices shot up. But now those jobs have dwindled, the migration has slowed, and the demand that pushed Denver to $602,000 simply isn't there anymore.

But here's the thing: one of the most overlooked causes of housing market booms and busts isn't just inventory. It's new construction.

From 2016 to 2020 Colorado was permitting roughly 38,000–42,000 homes per year. Then in 2022 that number skyrocketed to 48,341 units — a 25% surge above 2019 levels. *(Source: U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey)* A massive wave of new construction hit the market at exactly the moment buyers were pulling back because of rising rates. Supply ballooned. Demand collapsed. Sellers panicked. Prices fell.

But here's what's actually interesting — and what most people calling for a 2008-style crash completely miss. In complete contrast to 2008 through 2012, when builders kept building even with zero demand, builders today have gotten smart. They've shut off the pipeline. By 2024 Colorado permits dropped to 32,185 units — the lowest in nearly a decade. *(Source: U.S. Census Bureau BPS)* Builders looked at what happened and said: we're not doing that again.

This is not 2008. The supply correction is already happening at the builder level.

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Onondaga County, NY: The Market That Never Breaks

In January 2000, home prices in Onondaga County — that's Syracuse, New York — were just $79,403.

Today they're $263,665. That's an increase of 232% in 26 years — and there's no slowdown in sight. *(Source: ResiClub / Zillow ZHVI, Feb 2026)*

Here's what makes this market truly remarkable. Over those 26 years, Onondaga County has never had a price decline worse than 3.2%. Not once. Not in the dot-com bust. Not during the oil shock. Not even during the 2008 financial crisis — the worst housing crash in modern history — when prices fell just 0.7% in a single year and recovered immediately. While markets nationally were losing 20–30%, Syracuse barely flinched.

Here's the deal: it comes down to one thing. Inventory.

Active inventory went from 1,854 homes in 2016 down to just 377 today — an 84% collapse over 10 years. A straight line down. Every single year. No recovery. And new listings in March 2026 were only 254 — down 53% from March 2019's 544. *(Source: Lance Lambert / ResiClub Inventory Tracker)*

The correlation is undeniable. Lower inventory. Higher prices. Every time. Simple supply and demand.

But here's the kicker — and this is the stat that tells the whole story.

Colorado builds 5.5 homes per 1,000 residents. New York builds just 2.3. *(Source: U.S. Census Bureau BPS 2024 — statewide figures; Onondaga County builds even less per capita than the New York state average.)* That's not a rounding error. That's a structural difference in how these two states approach housing supply. Colorado builds. New York doesn't. And the housing markets of each state reflect exactly that.

Could home price growth slow in markets like Onondaga County? It could — if inventory somehow surged. But they have a long way to go and right now there is no relief in sight. The pipeline of new homes simply isn't there.

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What This Housing Market Split Means For You

There's a clear lesson from both of these counties.

Denver and Syracuse are not flukes. They represent two distinct housing markets that exist right now all across this country. Overbuilt markets with weakening demand are softening. Underbuilt markets with stable demand keep rising. Your job as a buyer or seller is to figure out which camp your county is in.

And it's easier than you think.

The One Number That Tells You Everything

It's inventory. That's it.

You can look this up right now for free. Pull up Zillow's market data or Redfin's data center and find the active listing count for your market. Better yet — call a local real estate agent who has MLS access and ask them for two things: active inventory levels going back 10 to 20 years, and median sale price over the same period.

Then look at the correlation. As inventory rises, prices fall. As inventory falls, prices rise. Every time. Without exception.

But here's the thing: don't just look at last year. Don't just look at this year. Go back as far as possible. The further back you go, the clearer the trend. One or two years of data tells you almost nothing. Twenty years tells you everything.

Or better yet — tune into my YouTube channel. I cover ZIP code-level data every week on my live streams. All you have to do is show up and request your market. No cost. No catch.

A Final Word on the Doom Crowd

You've probably seen the channels. Reventure Consulting. George Gammon. Melody Wright. Adam Taggart. They've been calling for a housing market crash for years.

Denver gives them a data point. And they'll run with it. They'll tell you the decline in Denver is a contagion — that it will spread throughout the entire US.

But here's the problem with that argument.

Just because Denver built too many homes doesn't mean Syracuse built too many homes. This isn't a contagion. It's localized. It's the direct and predictable result of supply and demand in two completely different markets operating under the same interest rates.

The same voices that point to Denver will conveniently ignore Syracuse. Or they'll manufacture a narrative — people are getting older in upstate New York, the economy is dying, Real Estate Nirvana is just around the corner and you'll be able to buy homes for pennies on the dollar. But they never describe the actual mechanism. They never show you the inventory data. They never pull 26 years of price history at the county level. They make broad sweeping statements that fit their narrative because their narrative is what gets the clicks.

They cater to people who want to blame anyone else in the world except themselves for not buying a home. I understand that. But at some point you have to take accountability for your own financial decisions — and that includes the decision to buy or not buy a home.

Here's what I can tell you with actual data. Are prices declining? Yes — in 99 of the top 300 markets. Are prices increasing? Yes — in 201 of the top 300 markets. I'm not ignoring either side. I'm showing you both. With real numbers. From real sources. At the county level.

I don't care if the market goes up. I don't care if it goes down. I have no control over it — and neither do you. The only thing either of us can control is how well we understand the market we're actually in.