Market Analysis

26 years of county-level data reveals why the national average is lying to you. 99 of the top 300 markets have falling prices — but 201 have rising prices. Same country. Same mortgage rates. Denver is drowning in inventory. Syracuse hasn't crashed in 26 years. Here's why.

The real crash isn't in prices — it's in transactions. Existing home sales at 30-year lows. 37 of 50 metros have rising prices. 23 of 50 have both fewer sellers AND less inventory. The flood of listings never came.

It's March and the Ohio housing market should be waking up. It's not. After going through all 88 Ohio counties, here's what the data actually shows — and it's not the story anyone is telling. 94% of Ohio counties have fewer homes for sale than before COVID ever happened.

Housing markets don't collapse simply because buyers hesitate. They collapse when sellers are forced to sell in large numbers. That requires three things happening together: a wave of forced selling, inventory overwhelming demand, and broad, synchronized price declines. Ohio doesn't have that combination right now.

Homeowners locked into 2–4% mortgage rates are staying put. New construction has not kept pace. And with only a trickle of listings entering the market each month, buyers often face a shrinking pool of options rather than an expanding one.

If nothing changes, the County Auditors Association president warned that property taxes could jump another 25–30% by the next sexennial reappraisal. In Licking County, we've got a triennial next year — another hit even before that "big kahuna" sexennial.